BR: Eloquent, insightful, lucid — why on earth would the filter catch this? Its the perfect comment !
markpmc Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 5:24 pm
the title reminds me of the question greg maddux asked a rookie pitcher.
“You trying to throw strikes or get people out?”
Liquidity Trader Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 5:27 pm
ahab,
The comment was from a traders perspective — it went right over your head.
Not only do you impose your politics on a non-political post, you completely misunderstand it. And to magnify your foolishness, you are rude to our host in a way that reveals you to be a much bigger asshole than I previously imagined.
This site is not for people like you — its for serious asset types. Try one of the Austrians sites,or ZH — they don’t care about making money.
mbelardes Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 5:42 pm
After reading through the comments (I rarely see BR this active on the comments, by the way) I’ve come to the conlcusion that some of the commenters are here to learn about macro perspectives and data analysis as a part of money management and some are here to root against the money management sector altogether.
This is why some of the posts where BR criticizes the market and market participants, such as firms and regulators, are so wildly popular and some of the sweet charts and data analysis get MAYBE a few dozen comments.
JasRas Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:11 pm
I’m in the makin’ money business, and frankly this isn’t that hard!! Right or wrong, the Fed and other CB’s are doing some version of QE, monetary expansion, etc… My basic view is dollars are worth less and other things are worth more…other things mean stocks, commodities–including precious metals, etc. Things that promise to return your dollars at a latter date in exchange for a predictable cash flow (ie. fixed income) mean you are getting dollars back later at an unknown deflated value. The cash flow paid in no way is compensating you for that lost buying power. Now, you say, there is no inflation! Look at the CPI. Well….if you believe stats compiled by the government, good luck to you because assets that perform well in inflationary environments are doing well. What amount is inflation and what amount is debasement is not for me to figure out or care….
Are we short term over bought? In all probability, yes. Is this market obliging people and “letting them in”? NO! My experience with rallies that “won’t let you in” is that they’ve got a ways to go. With so many institutional types underperforming, you are witnessing a rally most likely driven by career risk. But, again, the why is somewhat irrelevant. Are you going to watch, or are you going to participate? Are you long? Are you long enough?
The interesting thing I see is the TNX is still hitting record low yields on the 10yr… Someone is going to be wrong, and in a big way because these rubberbands only stretch sooooo far. Is it stocks or is it fixed? One could argue that both are overbought right now. Gold too for that matter. Something somewhere is going to take a breather. Which do you want to be wrong on. You want to top-tick fixed income? Gold? Or a stock market that still isn’t up to the April highs? I can tell you which one is easiest to get forgiveness for…equities.
Good luck to all.
davver Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:22 pm
Barry,
The essential problem is how one is supposed to own assets they know are overpriced. If you believe equities are overpriced then you are playing a greater fools game. How are you to know when you aren’t the greatest fool?
“BTW, just because you are making money in other sectors, does not mean you CANNOT make money in equities.
Making money in Gold or Bonds (ala my pal David Rosenberg) does not excuse missing a HUGE Equity rally.”
Can’t you say the same thing about every bubble? Shouldn’t I have been flipping houses from 2003-2005. Shouldn’t you have been buying and then selling tech 1998-2000. The truth is you have no clue when a bubble is going to end. You could just as easily have seen the housing bubble or tech bubble end earlier or later then it did. There is no rationality to a bubble. Prices simply get more and more insane until they don’t anymore. They seem just as insane the whole way through. You can’t say you have some magic insight as to pinpoint when the insanity will stop.
Look, I use technical investing and other indicators to try and pick my buy and sell points. But I buy things I think have good fundamentals and I sell them when I think they don’t anymore. The technical stuff just helps me pick specific entry/exit points on things I already feel good about. I don’t run out and buy assets I think are crap because some chart or sentiment indicator or gut feel makes me.
When I was younger I put myself through college playing poker, which I feel is very similar to investing. I was a pretty conservative player. I read up on Sklansky, analyzed my hands logically, and played very mathematically. I was aggressive but didn’t naked bluff often just enough to keep people off balance and steal some pots. I was careful never to get too deep into a hand that was trouble. It was reliable profit.
Some people are successful a very different way. They are extremely hyper aggressive and bluff constantly. They rely almost entirely on reading their opponent with little regard for their own cards. I’m sure that there are many people with a similar talent for trading financial instruments. They have a read on the tape. They can make money that way. However, like poker there are many people who think they can do that and can’t for every one that can. In fact I’d say its less likely in investing, as the sample size on investments is too small and the complexity too great.
If you truly think you have the talent to pick the bottom and top of every single investment trend then congratulations. Me, I’ve got to be more humble. I’ve got to focus on things I understand and have a track record of success with. I’d rather stay away from things I consider dangerous that I don’t understand. So I don’t think its wrong to chase every single bubble. Like Rosenburg I’ve made decent profits in gold and bonds. And I didn’t lose any on the way down for equities, in fact I captured about half of the down leg as a short before covering. Maybe I didn’t quintuple my money, but I’ve done rather well, and with a very low amount of risk in my mind.
DiggidyDan Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:22 pm
I’m just glad after liquidating a lot of my positions from the stock market due to not believing the economic recovery was sustainable, I kept my basic core holdings in stocks i still believed in that pay good dividends and have constant demand such as ADM, BDX, BHP, CVX, GSK, JNJ, MMM, SCCO(formerly PCU YEAH COPPER!) and UL. and halved the rest of the stuff between long term TIPS Bond funds (LTPZ and PRRRX) and an emergency fund in 3% yield MM account. Only problem is I had a couple unforseen blowups in BP and BAX due to non market catastrophes that stopped me out and cost me some big coin. I haven’t made much money over the last 3 years, but I haven’t lost any and I have beat the S&P 500.
Only problem is, I lost 60 Large in the housing market and can’t refi at these low rates and took a pay cut.
call me ahab Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:23 pm
“This site is not for people like you — its for serious asset types”
laughable (and so full of self importance)- also you may want to consider a career in blog enforcement(as if BR can’t take care of himself)-
also- where are my politics? Where were they mentioned in this thread?
I guess you must have mind melded me from across your keyboard (and my guess is you still got it wrong)
Mark E Hoffer Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:26 pm
“Regardless of how the rally concludes, the folks who missed an 85% generational run up in equities will pound their chests and say “See, we told you so!” And they will have made absolutely no money in the process.”–BR, above
BR,
‘Equities’ are the ‘only investment’?
why not run some DOW/Gold, or DOW/Silver, Charts to go with that?
as Boockvar, rightly, was pointing out, recently, the SPX/CRBRIND, after the “strongest one-month Equity Rally since ’39″, is nearly 1 ..
Hey, you’re better than that…
call me ahab Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:30 pm
I ask:
“what happens if the Fed doesn’t or is unable to oblige?”
BR replies:
“Then you sell.”
I was looking for something more thorough (in a macro sense)- but I like this answer just on brevity alone
gman Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:59 pm
Venn,
I may use that rant in the near future…maybe at my firm…to the only person who is a “tea-party fellow traveler”…who also just happens to be the only trader of the 9 we have who is struggling!
Well put!
Andy T Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 7:03 pm
Boo-Yah Barry!
GYSC Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 7:10 pm
Barry,
I appreciate you taking the time to post this and answer all the comments. I think I see better know how you look at things.
Andy T Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 7:17 pm
It’s actually a good post BR. It does come across a little bit like “chest-thumping,” but sometimes the black and white pixels come across in a different way than the voice/tone in the head. We’ve all come across the wrong way in the written word.
With that said, I think the S&P will trade below 900 before 12/31/2011. I’d take some friendly side-action on that proposition bet.
rootless Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 7:21 pm
Barry,
We made money from March 09 til April 2010. Since then, we have mostly avoided losing money. Its been a good strategy.
Well, good. I haven’t been doing so well for recent months. But it wasn’t my fault. My trading program did it.
However, as of today, S&P500 is down only 4.7% from the peak in April. So my criticism stands. You say your approach is right, because you have made money since March 09, based on the performance mostly during the price run up. You say yourself the secular bear market has still to find its bottom. Right? And you think the market is overvalued based on metrics like CAPE? Then, I have to agree with some other commenter here, that you are playing the greater fool game. And, in addition to that, you ridicule the ones who are grumpy about it and don’t want to play along and have therefore “missed a 85% generational run up”. You basically say that everyone who participates in this game could have made huge profits. But this logic is flawed. A greater fool game can’t work and won’t have worked for everyone who has participated, after everything is said and done. It only works for some, the ones who are the first ones at the exits, you may belong to those, but it doesn’t work for many. It works for some because it doesn’t work for many. The gains for the ones are the losses for the other ones. The outcome this time won’t be different to the final outcome of the stock market and real estate bubble earlier this decade with misery for many. And the judgment over any investment approach will be spoken when the market cycle has come to its full closure, not based on the performance from the market lows in March 2009 to today.
Your at least implicit advice that one should do it like you have done it, if one wants to make big gains in the stock market, is actually very bad advice, even if it has worked for you.
After the coffee. Before deciding if Brett Favre should just quit now.
The Skinny: The Jets beat the Vikings. Oh wait, you're not here for that. Universal has a dilemma on its hands and it's apparently no laughing matter. Lions Gate makes a final run at MGM. Blockbuster is on the hunt for a new CEO and the Weinstein Co. has some new money to play with.
Lions Gate wants to play spoiler. Lions Gate is making a last-ditch run at merging with Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer after that ailing studio already unveiled its plan for Spyglass Entertainment principals Roger Birnbaum and Gary Barber to run the company. That still needs approval by MGM's lenders, and votes are due Oct. 22. The move by Lions Gate is seen as defensive and an effort to keep Carl Icahn, the activist investor who is waging a hostile takeover effort for the production company. But Icahn has been accumulating debt in MGM and has indicated he would support such a merger. More on the never-ending saga from the Los Angeles Times.
Help wanted. Blockbuster Inc., the video store chain that was once the dominant player in the home entertainment business, will look to hire a new chief executive when it emerges from bankruptcy, which the company filed for a few weeks ago. The Wall Street Journal reports that Blockbuster has hired an executive search firm to find a replacement for Jim Keyes, who may be gone before the end of the year.
Cash infusion. The Weinstein Co., the production company headed by Harvey and Bob Weinstein, got a much-needed investment from billionaire Len Blavatnik. The plan calls for Blavatnik to plunk money into a three-year film fund for a slate of movies with budgets of between $5 million and $20 million. He could end up investing as much as $100 million with the Weinsteins. Per the agreement, the Weinstein Co. will release the films here and in Canada and also control rights in Australia, Germany and France. Blavatnik's U.K.-based production, distribution and foreign sales company, Icon Entertainment, will oversee all other international markets. Details from Deadline Hollywood and the Los Angeles Times.
They can open their own e-mails. The Daily Beast looks at who the most "tech savvy" chief executive is in the media business. As usual, a line said first by Sirius XM chief Mel Karmazin is credited to outgoing NBC chief executive Jeff Zucker about trading analog dollars for digital dimes. Among the findings: Disney boss Bob Iger is savvy and Viacom's Philippe Dauman is not so savvy. No word on how savvy Brett Favre is.
Add them up. With more ways to watch shows whenever and wherever we want, the good news is it is really hard to miss an episode of a program unless you just don't want to see it. The downside is the networks are still primarily getting paid for those people who watch a show on television when it airs in its time period. "There’s a widening gap between ratings and the actual number of people watching," writes Joe Adalian in New York magazine. The TV industry and Nielsen, which measures ratings, need to do a better job of tracking all the viewing that is going on. Just as important, while devices such as the digital video recorder make it easier for consumers watch their favorite shows when they want to, advertisers and networks are wary of ad-skipping. CBS research guru David Poltrack and the rest of the networks are already working on a way to have their cake and eat it too, as the Los Angeles Times notes.
Late to the game? The controversy over a joke from the upcoming Universal Pictures/Ron Howard comedy "The Dilemma," in which Vince Vaughn's character says electric cars are gay (before then explaining he doesn't mean gay in the homosexual sense) is not fading away even after the scene was cut from the trailer and may be yanked from the movie. The Hollywood Reporter says a side story may be whether the Gay & Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation (GLADD) was a little slow on responding to the issue.
Is your boss on this list? Glass Lewis & Co., a financial advisory firm, has come up with its list of the most overpaid chief executives. On top is Yahoo Chief Executive Carol Bartz, whose 2009 package was valued at almost $40 million. Glass Lewis looks at stock price, operating cash flow and growth in per-share earnings to figure out who it thinks is ripping off shareholders. More on the list from Bloomberg and the New York Post.
Inside the Los Angeles Times: Patrick Goldstein on the controversy surrounding "The Dilemma." Starz Media is selling Film Roman, the animation company whose credits include "The Simpsons" to a group investors that includes Scott Greenberg, a former head of the studio. Iosono Inc. wants to change the way we hear movies.
-- Joe Flint
Follow me on Twitter before it's too late. Twitter.com/JBFlint
Dr. eric seiger
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A private foundation owning stock in the News Corporation sent a letter objecting to company's contributions to Republican causes.
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BR: Eloquent, insightful, lucid — why on earth would the filter catch this? Its the perfect comment !
markpmc Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 5:24 pm
the title reminds me of the question greg maddux asked a rookie pitcher.
“You trying to throw strikes or get people out?”
Liquidity Trader Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 5:27 pm
ahab,
The comment was from a traders perspective — it went right over your head.
Not only do you impose your politics on a non-political post, you completely misunderstand it. And to magnify your foolishness, you are rude to our host in a way that reveals you to be a much bigger asshole than I previously imagined.
This site is not for people like you — its for serious asset types. Try one of the Austrians sites,or ZH — they don’t care about making money.
mbelardes Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 5:42 pm
After reading through the comments (I rarely see BR this active on the comments, by the way) I’ve come to the conlcusion that some of the commenters are here to learn about macro perspectives and data analysis as a part of money management and some are here to root against the money management sector altogether.
This is why some of the posts where BR criticizes the market and market participants, such as firms and regulators, are so wildly popular and some of the sweet charts and data analysis get MAYBE a few dozen comments.
JasRas Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:11 pm
I’m in the makin’ money business, and frankly this isn’t that hard!! Right or wrong, the Fed and other CB’s are doing some version of QE, monetary expansion, etc… My basic view is dollars are worth less and other things are worth more…other things mean stocks, commodities–including precious metals, etc. Things that promise to return your dollars at a latter date in exchange for a predictable cash flow (ie. fixed income) mean you are getting dollars back later at an unknown deflated value. The cash flow paid in no way is compensating you for that lost buying power. Now, you say, there is no inflation! Look at the CPI. Well….if you believe stats compiled by the government, good luck to you because assets that perform well in inflationary environments are doing well. What amount is inflation and what amount is debasement is not for me to figure out or care….
Are we short term over bought? In all probability, yes. Is this market obliging people and “letting them in”? NO! My experience with rallies that “won’t let you in” is that they’ve got a ways to go. With so many institutional types underperforming, you are witnessing a rally most likely driven by career risk. But, again, the why is somewhat irrelevant. Are you going to watch, or are you going to participate? Are you long? Are you long enough?
The interesting thing I see is the TNX is still hitting record low yields on the 10yr… Someone is going to be wrong, and in a big way because these rubberbands only stretch sooooo far. Is it stocks or is it fixed? One could argue that both are overbought right now. Gold too for that matter. Something somewhere is going to take a breather. Which do you want to be wrong on. You want to top-tick fixed income? Gold? Or a stock market that still isn’t up to the April highs? I can tell you which one is easiest to get forgiveness for…equities.
Good luck to all.
davver Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:22 pm
Barry,
The essential problem is how one is supposed to own assets they know are overpriced. If you believe equities are overpriced then you are playing a greater fools game. How are you to know when you aren’t the greatest fool?
“BTW, just because you are making money in other sectors, does not mean you CANNOT make money in equities.
Making money in Gold or Bonds (ala my pal David Rosenberg) does not excuse missing a HUGE Equity rally.”
Can’t you say the same thing about every bubble? Shouldn’t I have been flipping houses from 2003-2005. Shouldn’t you have been buying and then selling tech 1998-2000. The truth is you have no clue when a bubble is going to end. You could just as easily have seen the housing bubble or tech bubble end earlier or later then it did. There is no rationality to a bubble. Prices simply get more and more insane until they don’t anymore. They seem just as insane the whole way through. You can’t say you have some magic insight as to pinpoint when the insanity will stop.
Look, I use technical investing and other indicators to try and pick my buy and sell points. But I buy things I think have good fundamentals and I sell them when I think they don’t anymore. The technical stuff just helps me pick specific entry/exit points on things I already feel good about. I don’t run out and buy assets I think are crap because some chart or sentiment indicator or gut feel makes me.
When I was younger I put myself through college playing poker, which I feel is very similar to investing. I was a pretty conservative player. I read up on Sklansky, analyzed my hands logically, and played very mathematically. I was aggressive but didn’t naked bluff often just enough to keep people off balance and steal some pots. I was careful never to get too deep into a hand that was trouble. It was reliable profit.
Some people are successful a very different way. They are extremely hyper aggressive and bluff constantly. They rely almost entirely on reading their opponent with little regard for their own cards. I’m sure that there are many people with a similar talent for trading financial instruments. They have a read on the tape. They can make money that way. However, like poker there are many people who think they can do that and can’t for every one that can. In fact I’d say its less likely in investing, as the sample size on investments is too small and the complexity too great.
If you truly think you have the talent to pick the bottom and top of every single investment trend then congratulations. Me, I’ve got to be more humble. I’ve got to focus on things I understand and have a track record of success with. I’d rather stay away from things I consider dangerous that I don’t understand. So I don’t think its wrong to chase every single bubble. Like Rosenburg I’ve made decent profits in gold and bonds. And I didn’t lose any on the way down for equities, in fact I captured about half of the down leg as a short before covering. Maybe I didn’t quintuple my money, but I’ve done rather well, and with a very low amount of risk in my mind.
DiggidyDan Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:22 pm
I’m just glad after liquidating a lot of my positions from the stock market due to not believing the economic recovery was sustainable, I kept my basic core holdings in stocks i still believed in that pay good dividends and have constant demand such as ADM, BDX, BHP, CVX, GSK, JNJ, MMM, SCCO(formerly PCU YEAH COPPER!) and UL. and halved the rest of the stuff between long term TIPS Bond funds (LTPZ and PRRRX) and an emergency fund in 3% yield MM account. Only problem is I had a couple unforseen blowups in BP and BAX due to non market catastrophes that stopped me out and cost me some big coin. I haven’t made much money over the last 3 years, but I haven’t lost any and I have beat the S&P 500.
Only problem is, I lost 60 Large in the housing market and can’t refi at these low rates and took a pay cut.
call me ahab Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:23 pm
“This site is not for people like you — its for serious asset types”
laughable (and so full of self importance)- also you may want to consider a career in blog enforcement(as if BR can’t take care of himself)-
also- where are my politics? Where were they mentioned in this thread?
I guess you must have mind melded me from across your keyboard (and my guess is you still got it wrong)
Mark E Hoffer Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:26 pm
“Regardless of how the rally concludes, the folks who missed an 85% generational run up in equities will pound their chests and say “See, we told you so!” And they will have made absolutely no money in the process.”–BR, above
BR,
‘Equities’ are the ‘only investment’?
why not run some DOW/Gold, or DOW/Silver, Charts to go with that?
as Boockvar, rightly, was pointing out, recently, the SPX/CRBRIND, after the “strongest one-month Equity Rally since ’39″, is nearly 1 ..
Hey, you’re better than that…
call me ahab Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:30 pm
I ask:
“what happens if the Fed doesn’t or is unable to oblige?”
BR replies:
“Then you sell.”
I was looking for something more thorough (in a macro sense)- but I like this answer just on brevity alone
gman Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:59 pm
Venn,
I may use that rant in the near future…maybe at my firm…to the only person who is a “tea-party fellow traveler”…who also just happens to be the only trader of the 9 we have who is struggling!
Well put!
Andy T Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 7:03 pm
Boo-Yah Barry!
GYSC Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 7:10 pm
Barry,
I appreciate you taking the time to post this and answer all the comments. I think I see better know how you look at things.
Andy T Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 7:17 pm
It’s actually a good post BR. It does come across a little bit like “chest-thumping,” but sometimes the black and white pixels come across in a different way than the voice/tone in the head. We’ve all come across the wrong way in the written word.
With that said, I think the S&P will trade below 900 before 12/31/2011. I’d take some friendly side-action on that proposition bet.
rootless Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 7:21 pm
Barry,
We made money from March 09 til April 2010. Since then, we have mostly avoided losing money. Its been a good strategy.
Well, good. I haven’t been doing so well for recent months. But it wasn’t my fault. My trading program did it.
However, as of today, S&P500 is down only 4.7% from the peak in April. So my criticism stands. You say your approach is right, because you have made money since March 09, based on the performance mostly during the price run up. You say yourself the secular bear market has still to find its bottom. Right? And you think the market is overvalued based on metrics like CAPE? Then, I have to agree with some other commenter here, that you are playing the greater fool game. And, in addition to that, you ridicule the ones who are grumpy about it and don’t want to play along and have therefore “missed a 85% generational run up”. You basically say that everyone who participates in this game could have made huge profits. But this logic is flawed. A greater fool game can’t work and won’t have worked for everyone who has participated, after everything is said and done. It only works for some, the ones who are the first ones at the exits, you may belong to those, but it doesn’t work for many. It works for some because it doesn’t work for many. The gains for the ones are the losses for the other ones. The outcome this time won’t be different to the final outcome of the stock market and real estate bubble earlier this decade with misery for many. And the judgment over any investment approach will be spoken when the market cycle has come to its full closure, not based on the performance from the market lows in March 2009 to today.
Your at least implicit advice that one should do it like you have done it, if one wants to make big gains in the stock market, is actually very bad advice, even if it has worked for you.
After the coffee. Before deciding if Brett Favre should just quit now.
The Skinny: The Jets beat the Vikings. Oh wait, you're not here for that. Universal has a dilemma on its hands and it's apparently no laughing matter. Lions Gate makes a final run at MGM. Blockbuster is on the hunt for a new CEO and the Weinstein Co. has some new money to play with.
Lions Gate wants to play spoiler. Lions Gate is making a last-ditch run at merging with Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer after that ailing studio already unveiled its plan for Spyglass Entertainment principals Roger Birnbaum and Gary Barber to run the company. That still needs approval by MGM's lenders, and votes are due Oct. 22. The move by Lions Gate is seen as defensive and an effort to keep Carl Icahn, the activist investor who is waging a hostile takeover effort for the production company. But Icahn has been accumulating debt in MGM and has indicated he would support such a merger. More on the never-ending saga from the Los Angeles Times.
Help wanted. Blockbuster Inc., the video store chain that was once the dominant player in the home entertainment business, will look to hire a new chief executive when it emerges from bankruptcy, which the company filed for a few weeks ago. The Wall Street Journal reports that Blockbuster has hired an executive search firm to find a replacement for Jim Keyes, who may be gone before the end of the year.
Cash infusion. The Weinstein Co., the production company headed by Harvey and Bob Weinstein, got a much-needed investment from billionaire Len Blavatnik. The plan calls for Blavatnik to plunk money into a three-year film fund for a slate of movies with budgets of between $5 million and $20 million. He could end up investing as much as $100 million with the Weinsteins. Per the agreement, the Weinstein Co. will release the films here and in Canada and also control rights in Australia, Germany and France. Blavatnik's U.K.-based production, distribution and foreign sales company, Icon Entertainment, will oversee all other international markets. Details from Deadline Hollywood and the Los Angeles Times.
They can open their own e-mails. The Daily Beast looks at who the most "tech savvy" chief executive is in the media business. As usual, a line said first by Sirius XM chief Mel Karmazin is credited to outgoing NBC chief executive Jeff Zucker about trading analog dollars for digital dimes. Among the findings: Disney boss Bob Iger is savvy and Viacom's Philippe Dauman is not so savvy. No word on how savvy Brett Favre is.
Add them up. With more ways to watch shows whenever and wherever we want, the good news is it is really hard to miss an episode of a program unless you just don't want to see it. The downside is the networks are still primarily getting paid for those people who watch a show on television when it airs in its time period. "There’s a widening gap between ratings and the actual number of people watching," writes Joe Adalian in New York magazine. The TV industry and Nielsen, which measures ratings, need to do a better job of tracking all the viewing that is going on. Just as important, while devices such as the digital video recorder make it easier for consumers watch their favorite shows when they want to, advertisers and networks are wary of ad-skipping. CBS research guru David Poltrack and the rest of the networks are already working on a way to have their cake and eat it too, as the Los Angeles Times notes.
Late to the game? The controversy over a joke from the upcoming Universal Pictures/Ron Howard comedy "The Dilemma," in which Vince Vaughn's character says electric cars are gay (before then explaining he doesn't mean gay in the homosexual sense) is not fading away even after the scene was cut from the trailer and may be yanked from the movie. The Hollywood Reporter says a side story may be whether the Gay & Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation (GLADD) was a little slow on responding to the issue.
Is your boss on this list? Glass Lewis & Co., a financial advisory firm, has come up with its list of the most overpaid chief executives. On top is Yahoo Chief Executive Carol Bartz, whose 2009 package was valued at almost $40 million. Glass Lewis looks at stock price, operating cash flow and growth in per-share earnings to figure out who it thinks is ripping off shareholders. More on the list from Bloomberg and the New York Post.
Inside the Los Angeles Times: Patrick Goldstein on the controversy surrounding "The Dilemma." Starz Media is selling Film Roman, the animation company whose credits include "The Simpsons" to a group investors that includes Scott Greenberg, a former head of the studio. Iosono Inc. wants to change the way we hear movies.
-- Joe Flint
Follow me on Twitter before it's too late. Twitter.com/JBFlint
eric seiger dermatology
Wonkroom » Fox <b>News</b> 'Quietly' Launches Latino Website That Bears <b>...</b>
However, the site also brings out Fox News' sensitive side when it comes to the Latino community. While Fox News Latino does indeed provide coverage of the issues that Latinos care about (particularly immigration), the tone and angle of ...
<b>News</b> of the World: The Best for <b>News</b>, Showbiz and Sport Exclusives <b>...</b>
Britain's biggest-selling newspaper featuring the best news, showbiz and sport exclusives - updated 24/7. videos and pictures of celebrities, the latest entertainment and sport news from the News of The World.
<b>News</b> Corp. Shareholder Objects to G.O.P. Donations - NYTimes.com
A private foundation owning stock in the News Corporation sent a letter objecting to company's contributions to Republican causes.
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Wonkroom » Fox <b>News</b> 'Quietly' Launches Latino Website That Bears <b>...</b>
However, the site also brings out Fox News' sensitive side when it comes to the Latino community. While Fox News Latino does indeed provide coverage of the issues that Latinos care about (particularly immigration), the tone and angle of ...
<b>News</b> of the World: The Best for <b>News</b>, Showbiz and Sport Exclusives <b>...</b>
Britain's biggest-selling newspaper featuring the best news, showbiz and sport exclusives - updated 24/7. videos and pictures of celebrities, the latest entertainment and sport news from the News of The World.
<b>News</b> Corp. Shareholder Objects to G.O.P. Donations - NYTimes.com
A private foundation owning stock in the News Corporation sent a letter objecting to company's contributions to Republican causes.
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BR: Eloquent, insightful, lucid — why on earth would the filter catch this? Its the perfect comment !
markpmc Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 5:24 pm
the title reminds me of the question greg maddux asked a rookie pitcher.
“You trying to throw strikes or get people out?”
Liquidity Trader Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 5:27 pm
ahab,
The comment was from a traders perspective — it went right over your head.
Not only do you impose your politics on a non-political post, you completely misunderstand it. And to magnify your foolishness, you are rude to our host in a way that reveals you to be a much bigger asshole than I previously imagined.
This site is not for people like you — its for serious asset types. Try one of the Austrians sites,or ZH — they don’t care about making money.
mbelardes Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 5:42 pm
After reading through the comments (I rarely see BR this active on the comments, by the way) I’ve come to the conlcusion that some of the commenters are here to learn about macro perspectives and data analysis as a part of money management and some are here to root against the money management sector altogether.
This is why some of the posts where BR criticizes the market and market participants, such as firms and regulators, are so wildly popular and some of the sweet charts and data analysis get MAYBE a few dozen comments.
JasRas Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:11 pm
I’m in the makin’ money business, and frankly this isn’t that hard!! Right or wrong, the Fed and other CB’s are doing some version of QE, monetary expansion, etc… My basic view is dollars are worth less and other things are worth more…other things mean stocks, commodities–including precious metals, etc. Things that promise to return your dollars at a latter date in exchange for a predictable cash flow (ie. fixed income) mean you are getting dollars back later at an unknown deflated value. The cash flow paid in no way is compensating you for that lost buying power. Now, you say, there is no inflation! Look at the CPI. Well….if you believe stats compiled by the government, good luck to you because assets that perform well in inflationary environments are doing well. What amount is inflation and what amount is debasement is not for me to figure out or care….
Are we short term over bought? In all probability, yes. Is this market obliging people and “letting them in”? NO! My experience with rallies that “won’t let you in” is that they’ve got a ways to go. With so many institutional types underperforming, you are witnessing a rally most likely driven by career risk. But, again, the why is somewhat irrelevant. Are you going to watch, or are you going to participate? Are you long? Are you long enough?
The interesting thing I see is the TNX is still hitting record low yields on the 10yr… Someone is going to be wrong, and in a big way because these rubberbands only stretch sooooo far. Is it stocks or is it fixed? One could argue that both are overbought right now. Gold too for that matter. Something somewhere is going to take a breather. Which do you want to be wrong on. You want to top-tick fixed income? Gold? Or a stock market that still isn’t up to the April highs? I can tell you which one is easiest to get forgiveness for…equities.
Good luck to all.
davver Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:22 pm
Barry,
The essential problem is how one is supposed to own assets they know are overpriced. If you believe equities are overpriced then you are playing a greater fools game. How are you to know when you aren’t the greatest fool?
“BTW, just because you are making money in other sectors, does not mean you CANNOT make money in equities.
Making money in Gold or Bonds (ala my pal David Rosenberg) does not excuse missing a HUGE Equity rally.”
Can’t you say the same thing about every bubble? Shouldn’t I have been flipping houses from 2003-2005. Shouldn’t you have been buying and then selling tech 1998-2000. The truth is you have no clue when a bubble is going to end. You could just as easily have seen the housing bubble or tech bubble end earlier or later then it did. There is no rationality to a bubble. Prices simply get more and more insane until they don’t anymore. They seem just as insane the whole way through. You can’t say you have some magic insight as to pinpoint when the insanity will stop.
Look, I use technical investing and other indicators to try and pick my buy and sell points. But I buy things I think have good fundamentals and I sell them when I think they don’t anymore. The technical stuff just helps me pick specific entry/exit points on things I already feel good about. I don’t run out and buy assets I think are crap because some chart or sentiment indicator or gut feel makes me.
When I was younger I put myself through college playing poker, which I feel is very similar to investing. I was a pretty conservative player. I read up on Sklansky, analyzed my hands logically, and played very mathematically. I was aggressive but didn’t naked bluff often just enough to keep people off balance and steal some pots. I was careful never to get too deep into a hand that was trouble. It was reliable profit.
Some people are successful a very different way. They are extremely hyper aggressive and bluff constantly. They rely almost entirely on reading their opponent with little regard for their own cards. I’m sure that there are many people with a similar talent for trading financial instruments. They have a read on the tape. They can make money that way. However, like poker there are many people who think they can do that and can’t for every one that can. In fact I’d say its less likely in investing, as the sample size on investments is too small and the complexity too great.
If you truly think you have the talent to pick the bottom and top of every single investment trend then congratulations. Me, I’ve got to be more humble. I’ve got to focus on things I understand and have a track record of success with. I’d rather stay away from things I consider dangerous that I don’t understand. So I don’t think its wrong to chase every single bubble. Like Rosenburg I’ve made decent profits in gold and bonds. And I didn’t lose any on the way down for equities, in fact I captured about half of the down leg as a short before covering. Maybe I didn’t quintuple my money, but I’ve done rather well, and with a very low amount of risk in my mind.
DiggidyDan Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:22 pm
I’m just glad after liquidating a lot of my positions from the stock market due to not believing the economic recovery was sustainable, I kept my basic core holdings in stocks i still believed in that pay good dividends and have constant demand such as ADM, BDX, BHP, CVX, GSK, JNJ, MMM, SCCO(formerly PCU YEAH COPPER!) and UL. and halved the rest of the stuff between long term TIPS Bond funds (LTPZ and PRRRX) and an emergency fund in 3% yield MM account. Only problem is I had a couple unforseen blowups in BP and BAX due to non market catastrophes that stopped me out and cost me some big coin. I haven’t made much money over the last 3 years, but I haven’t lost any and I have beat the S&P 500.
Only problem is, I lost 60 Large in the housing market and can’t refi at these low rates and took a pay cut.
call me ahab Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:23 pm
“This site is not for people like you — its for serious asset types”
laughable (and so full of self importance)- also you may want to consider a career in blog enforcement(as if BR can’t take care of himself)-
also- where are my politics? Where were they mentioned in this thread?
I guess you must have mind melded me from across your keyboard (and my guess is you still got it wrong)
Mark E Hoffer Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:26 pm
“Regardless of how the rally concludes, the folks who missed an 85% generational run up in equities will pound their chests and say “See, we told you so!” And they will have made absolutely no money in the process.”–BR, above
BR,
‘Equities’ are the ‘only investment’?
why not run some DOW/Gold, or DOW/Silver, Charts to go with that?
as Boockvar, rightly, was pointing out, recently, the SPX/CRBRIND, after the “strongest one-month Equity Rally since ’39″, is nearly 1 ..
Hey, you’re better than that…
call me ahab Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:30 pm
I ask:
“what happens if the Fed doesn’t or is unable to oblige?”
BR replies:
“Then you sell.”
I was looking for something more thorough (in a macro sense)- but I like this answer just on brevity alone
gman Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 6:59 pm
Venn,
I may use that rant in the near future…maybe at my firm…to the only person who is a “tea-party fellow traveler”…who also just happens to be the only trader of the 9 we have who is struggling!
Well put!
Andy T Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 7:03 pm
Boo-Yah Barry!
GYSC Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 7:10 pm
Barry,
I appreciate you taking the time to post this and answer all the comments. I think I see better know how you look at things.
Andy T Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 7:17 pm
It’s actually a good post BR. It does come across a little bit like “chest-thumping,” but sometimes the black and white pixels come across in a different way than the voice/tone in the head. We’ve all come across the wrong way in the written word.
With that said, I think the S&P will trade below 900 before 12/31/2011. I’d take some friendly side-action on that proposition bet.
rootless Says:
October 6th, 2010 at 7:21 pm
Barry,
We made money from March 09 til April 2010. Since then, we have mostly avoided losing money. Its been a good strategy.
Well, good. I haven’t been doing so well for recent months. But it wasn’t my fault. My trading program did it.
However, as of today, S&P500 is down only 4.7% from the peak in April. So my criticism stands. You say your approach is right, because you have made money since March 09, based on the performance mostly during the price run up. You say yourself the secular bear market has still to find its bottom. Right? And you think the market is overvalued based on metrics like CAPE? Then, I have to agree with some other commenter here, that you are playing the greater fool game. And, in addition to that, you ridicule the ones who are grumpy about it and don’t want to play along and have therefore “missed a 85% generational run up”. You basically say that everyone who participates in this game could have made huge profits. But this logic is flawed. A greater fool game can’t work and won’t have worked for everyone who has participated, after everything is said and done. It only works for some, the ones who are the first ones at the exits, you may belong to those, but it doesn’t work for many. It works for some because it doesn’t work for many. The gains for the ones are the losses for the other ones. The outcome this time won’t be different to the final outcome of the stock market and real estate bubble earlier this decade with misery for many. And the judgment over any investment approach will be spoken when the market cycle has come to its full closure, not based on the performance from the market lows in March 2009 to today.
Your at least implicit advice that one should do it like you have done it, if one wants to make big gains in the stock market, is actually very bad advice, even if it has worked for you.
After the coffee. Before deciding if Brett Favre should just quit now.
The Skinny: The Jets beat the Vikings. Oh wait, you're not here for that. Universal has a dilemma on its hands and it's apparently no laughing matter. Lions Gate makes a final run at MGM. Blockbuster is on the hunt for a new CEO and the Weinstein Co. has some new money to play with.
Lions Gate wants to play spoiler. Lions Gate is making a last-ditch run at merging with Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer after that ailing studio already unveiled its plan for Spyglass Entertainment principals Roger Birnbaum and Gary Barber to run the company. That still needs approval by MGM's lenders, and votes are due Oct. 22. The move by Lions Gate is seen as defensive and an effort to keep Carl Icahn, the activist investor who is waging a hostile takeover effort for the production company. But Icahn has been accumulating debt in MGM and has indicated he would support such a merger. More on the never-ending saga from the Los Angeles Times.
Help wanted. Blockbuster Inc., the video store chain that was once the dominant player in the home entertainment business, will look to hire a new chief executive when it emerges from bankruptcy, which the company filed for a few weeks ago. The Wall Street Journal reports that Blockbuster has hired an executive search firm to find a replacement for Jim Keyes, who may be gone before the end of the year.
Cash infusion. The Weinstein Co., the production company headed by Harvey and Bob Weinstein, got a much-needed investment from billionaire Len Blavatnik. The plan calls for Blavatnik to plunk money into a three-year film fund for a slate of movies with budgets of between $5 million and $20 million. He could end up investing as much as $100 million with the Weinsteins. Per the agreement, the Weinstein Co. will release the films here and in Canada and also control rights in Australia, Germany and France. Blavatnik's U.K.-based production, distribution and foreign sales company, Icon Entertainment, will oversee all other international markets. Details from Deadline Hollywood and the Los Angeles Times.
They can open their own e-mails. The Daily Beast looks at who the most "tech savvy" chief executive is in the media business. As usual, a line said first by Sirius XM chief Mel Karmazin is credited to outgoing NBC chief executive Jeff Zucker about trading analog dollars for digital dimes. Among the findings: Disney boss Bob Iger is savvy and Viacom's Philippe Dauman is not so savvy. No word on how savvy Brett Favre is.
Add them up. With more ways to watch shows whenever and wherever we want, the good news is it is really hard to miss an episode of a program unless you just don't want to see it. The downside is the networks are still primarily getting paid for those people who watch a show on television when it airs in its time period. "There’s a widening gap between ratings and the actual number of people watching," writes Joe Adalian in New York magazine. The TV industry and Nielsen, which measures ratings, need to do a better job of tracking all the viewing that is going on. Just as important, while devices such as the digital video recorder make it easier for consumers watch their favorite shows when they want to, advertisers and networks are wary of ad-skipping. CBS research guru David Poltrack and the rest of the networks are already working on a way to have their cake and eat it too, as the Los Angeles Times notes.
Late to the game? The controversy over a joke from the upcoming Universal Pictures/Ron Howard comedy "The Dilemma," in which Vince Vaughn's character says electric cars are gay (before then explaining he doesn't mean gay in the homosexual sense) is not fading away even after the scene was cut from the trailer and may be yanked from the movie. The Hollywood Reporter says a side story may be whether the Gay & Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation (GLADD) was a little slow on responding to the issue.
Is your boss on this list? Glass Lewis & Co., a financial advisory firm, has come up with its list of the most overpaid chief executives. On top is Yahoo Chief Executive Carol Bartz, whose 2009 package was valued at almost $40 million. Glass Lewis looks at stock price, operating cash flow and growth in per-share earnings to figure out who it thinks is ripping off shareholders. More on the list from Bloomberg and the New York Post.
Inside the Los Angeles Times: Patrick Goldstein on the controversy surrounding "The Dilemma." Starz Media is selling Film Roman, the animation company whose credits include "The Simpsons" to a group investors that includes Scott Greenberg, a former head of the studio. Iosono Inc. wants to change the way we hear movies.
-- Joe Flint
Follow me on Twitter before it's too late. Twitter.com/JBFlint
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Wonkroom » Fox <b>News</b> 'Quietly' Launches Latino Website That Bears <b>...</b>
However, the site also brings out Fox News' sensitive side when it comes to the Latino community. While Fox News Latino does indeed provide coverage of the issues that Latinos care about (particularly immigration), the tone and angle of ...
<b>News</b> of the World: The Best for <b>News</b>, Showbiz and Sport Exclusives <b>...</b>
Britain's biggest-selling newspaper featuring the best news, showbiz and sport exclusives - updated 24/7. videos and pictures of celebrities, the latest entertainment and sport news from the News of The World.
<b>News</b> Corp. Shareholder Objects to G.O.P. Donations - NYTimes.com
A private foundation owning stock in the News Corporation sent a letter objecting to company's contributions to Republican causes.
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Wonkroom » Fox <b>News</b> 'Quietly' Launches Latino Website That Bears <b>...</b>
However, the site also brings out Fox News' sensitive side when it comes to the Latino community. While Fox News Latino does indeed provide coverage of the issues that Latinos care about (particularly immigration), the tone and angle of ...
<b>News</b> of the World: The Best for <b>News</b>, Showbiz and Sport Exclusives <b>...</b>
Britain's biggest-selling newspaper featuring the best news, showbiz and sport exclusives - updated 24/7. videos and pictures of celebrities, the latest entertainment and sport news from the News of The World.
<b>News</b> Corp. Shareholder Objects to G.O.P. Donations - NYTimes.com
A private foundation owning stock in the News Corporation sent a letter objecting to company's contributions to Republican causes.
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Wonkroom » Fox <b>News</b> 'Quietly' Launches Latino Website That Bears <b>...</b>
However, the site also brings out Fox News' sensitive side when it comes to the Latino community. While Fox News Latino does indeed provide coverage of the issues that Latinos care about (particularly immigration), the tone and angle of ...
<b>News</b> of the World: The Best for <b>News</b>, Showbiz and Sport Exclusives <b>...</b>
Britain's biggest-selling newspaper featuring the best news, showbiz and sport exclusives - updated 24/7. videos and pictures of celebrities, the latest entertainment and sport news from the News of The World.
<b>News</b> Corp. Shareholder Objects to G.O.P. Donations - NYTimes.com
A private foundation owning stock in the News Corporation sent a letter objecting to company's contributions to Republican causes.
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Wonkroom » Fox <b>News</b> 'Quietly' Launches Latino Website That Bears <b>...</b>
However, the site also brings out Fox News' sensitive side when it comes to the Latino community. While Fox News Latino does indeed provide coverage of the issues that Latinos care about (particularly immigration), the tone and angle of ...
<b>News</b> of the World: The Best for <b>News</b>, Showbiz and Sport Exclusives <b>...</b>
Britain's biggest-selling newspaper featuring the best news, showbiz and sport exclusives - updated 24/7. videos and pictures of celebrities, the latest entertainment and sport news from the News of The World.
<b>News</b> Corp. Shareholder Objects to G.O.P. Donations - NYTimes.com
A private foundation owning stock in the News Corporation sent a letter objecting to company's contributions to Republican causes.
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Wonkroom » Fox <b>News</b> 'Quietly' Launches Latino Website That Bears <b>...</b>
However, the site also brings out Fox News' sensitive side when it comes to the Latino community. While Fox News Latino does indeed provide coverage of the issues that Latinos care about (particularly immigration), the tone and angle of ...
<b>News</b> of the World: The Best for <b>News</b>, Showbiz and Sport Exclusives <b>...</b>
Britain's biggest-selling newspaper featuring the best news, showbiz and sport exclusives - updated 24/7. videos and pictures of celebrities, the latest entertainment and sport news from the News of The World.
<b>News</b> Corp. Shareholder Objects to G.O.P. Donations - NYTimes.com
A private foundation owning stock in the News Corporation sent a letter objecting to company's contributions to Republican causes.
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Making money online myths abound. Myths about earning money online include that of making big money. For any man or woman who is making money on the Internet or has a money making business from home, you certainly know what these myths are.
I earn money online (making money writing), and I also have a money making business from home that's offline (freelance editorial work), and quite frankly, I'm a little fed up with myths that surround men and women who are making money online from a home based business.
Myth # 1
Men and women who work from home earn big money. Where did this work myth come from anyways? Though many money making opportunities and money making scams claim to be home-based, this doesn't mean that stay-at-home money making ideas translate into big money. Just the opposite may be true, when you consider that the home-based office often lacks the tools necessary to carry out big business. Many work at home men, women and moms must invest 10-12 hours a day in their business just to pay basic bills.
Myth # 2
Men and women who work from home have lots of free time. Yeah, right. Maybe you've heard those money making secrets radio ads in which some fluffy voiced woman claims she makes $5,000 a month working only nine hours a week. She's a paid voice-over reading a script. These radio ad people speak beautifully: no stammering, tripping over words or other speech mishaps that a real interviewee would exhibit. That's how you can tell they're fake.
Myth # 3
Men and women who work from home feel socially cut off from the community and isolated. This is so untrue. In fact, a person at a regular job may feel isolated, working in a cubicle with no windows. Any time the home-based workers wishes for human contact, they can step outside and walk down the street and start conversation with the first person they see. Or they can head for the gym or park in the middle of the day.
Myth # 4
Men and women who work from home are lonely. The home-based worker has more freedom to take a break and socialize, than a person who's trapped inside a building in a traditional office job, or a person who's in a car, van or truck all day making deliveries or performing services.
Myth # 5
Men and women who work from home miss out on intellectual stimulation. I am more intellectually stimulated making money writing from home than I was listening to the mindless drivel of co-workers at the Denver Post where I used to work.
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Wonkroom » Fox <b>News</b> 'Quietly' Launches Latino Website That Bears <b>...</b>
However, the site also brings out Fox News' sensitive side when it comes to the Latino community. While Fox News Latino does indeed provide coverage of the issues that Latinos care about (particularly immigration), the tone and angle of ...
<b>News</b> of the World: The Best for <b>News</b>, Showbiz and Sport Exclusives <b>...</b>
Britain's biggest-selling newspaper featuring the best news, showbiz and sport exclusives - updated 24/7. videos and pictures of celebrities, the latest entertainment and sport news from the News of The World.
<b>News</b> Corp. Shareholder Objects to G.O.P. Donations - NYTimes.com
A private foundation owning stock in the News Corporation sent a letter objecting to company's contributions to Republican causes.
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Wonkroom » Fox <b>News</b> 'Quietly' Launches Latino Website That Bears <b>...</b>
However, the site also brings out Fox News' sensitive side when it comes to the Latino community. While Fox News Latino does indeed provide coverage of the issues that Latinos care about (particularly immigration), the tone and angle of ...
<b>News</b> of the World: The Best for <b>News</b>, Showbiz and Sport Exclusives <b>...</b>
Britain's biggest-selling newspaper featuring the best news, showbiz and sport exclusives - updated 24/7. videos and pictures of celebrities, the latest entertainment and sport news from the News of The World.
<b>News</b> Corp. Shareholder Objects to G.O.P. Donations - NYTimes.com
A private foundation owning stock in the News Corporation sent a letter objecting to company's contributions to Republican causes.
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