Concerted efforts designed to prevent unnecessary foreclosures have reduced the amount of mortgage redefaults, says a group of state attorneys general and banking regulators. But the group also expressed concern that foreclosures continue to outnumber loan modifications.
According to a report issued by the State Foreclosure Prevention Working Group, a multi-state coalition, recent loan modifications are in fact performing better. Loan modifications may include reduced interest rates and other changes that result in smaller payments -- and in some cases, lower outstanding balances.
"Some analysts have predicted redefault rates as high as 75%, but today's report paints a brighter picture of the future," Washington Attorney General and working group member Rob McKenna said in a statement. "The newer modifications are holding up better, with fewer borrowers redefaulting."
Despite the progress noted in the report, McKenna says he's concerned that 6 out of 10 seriously-delinquent borrowers are not getting any help.
The report tracks loan modifications made by nine mortgage companies who were servicing 4.6 million loans as of March 2010. Banks -- which are regulated by federal agencies -- are not included in the report. Compared to loans modified in 2008, borrowers whose loans were modified in 2009 were 40% to 50% less likely to be seriously delinquent 6 months later.
The majority of loan modifications (89%) tracked by the working group for the first quarter of 2010 showed some reduction in payments, and nearly 78% lowered the monthly payment by more than 10%. Redefault rates were lower for loan modifications that reduced the principal balance by more than 10%.
However, only 1 in 5 modifications reduce the loan amount, and the vast majority increase the loan balance by adding servicing charges and late payments.
"When housing prices are low, the lender is going to take a loss if that home is foreclosed and surrounding home values will ultimately be impacted," McKenna said in a statement. "The underlying theory of a loan modification is to enable the lender to get the same value out of the home as if it had been foreclosed. The lender still takes a loss through the reduction of interest or principle. But the net result is better for the community and the borrower because, of course, a house is more than just an asset. It's a home."
The Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller of Currency reported a similar reduction in redefault rates in its Mortgage Metrics Report for the first quarter of 2010. Of the 590,000 modifications made in 2009, nearly 52% were still current (i.e. homeowners were making payments on time) at the end of the first quarter of 2010, the agencies reported. By comparison, only 27% of loan modifications made during 2008 were still current.
McKenna and his office have trying to help homeowners by cracking down on unethical lenders and fraudsters, pushing for the modification of unaffordable mortgages, urging changes to bankruptcy rules, and seeking state-federal collaboration on bank regulation.
The Washington Attorney General's Office also granted $920,000 of its Countrywide/Bank of America settlement payment for local foreclosure prevention programs that provide counseling and pro bono legal services.
The State Foreclosure Prevention Working Group consists of 12 state attorneys general (Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and Washington), bank regulators for New York, North Carolina, and Maryland, and the Conference of State Bank Supervisors. The group was founded in 2007 and has issued four previous reports.
Demand: fewer new households
Household creation depends on the state of the economy. The combination of high unemployment, weak wage and salary growth, and tight credit has led to a decline in household growth over the past few years. The two main surveys of household formation from the Census Bureau – the Housing Vacancy Survey and Current Population Survey – show that about 500,000 households were created annually over the past three years compared to an annual average of about 1.2 million during the first half of the decade (Figure 6). How can we explain such a notable drop in household formation?
Moving in with the folks
The obvious answer is to look at homeownership rates, which have tumbled to 66.9% from a peak of 69.2% in 4Q04. This translates to a loss of nearly 2.5 mn homeowners. Most of these homeowners became renters, which means they remain a household, but not all. As can be seen by the surge in the rental vacancy rate to 10.6%, it seems that there was not a perfect shift from homeowners to renters (Figure 7). This begs the question: what happened to these former households? There was doubling up among economically stressed households; in other words people moved in with friends or family. Many of these former homeowners were probably foreclosure victims (Figure 8).
As Figure 8 shows, household formation can also decline if there are fewer young households created to replace the aging homeowners. Given the nearly 10 point surge in the unemployment rate among 16 to 24 year olds from the trough to peak during this cycle, it seems like this was a considerable factor. A recent paper sponsored by the Research Institute for Housing America estimates that the probability of a young adult forming a household declines by 4% during a recession, and up to 10% if unemployed. In addition to the slowdown in “headship rates” domestically, there was a drop in household formation from immigration. According to the Office of Immigration Statistics at the Department of Homeland Security, the number of unauthorized immigrants decline by 1.0 million from 2007 to 2009 compared to a net gain of 1.3 million from 2005 to 2007.
Household growth to improve, but with a lag
Household formation will naturally pick up as the economy improves, but if our forecast for a sluggish recovery is realized, household growth will also be lackluster. The main factor influencing household growth will be the state of the labor market. The above-referenced paper finds that the unemployment rate must fall by 2pp from current levels to return to normal rates of household formation of about 1.2-1.4 million a year. We do not expect the unemployment rate to reach the mid-7% range until 2013, implying another two and a half years of sluggish household formation of about 800,000 a year. This is also when we expect the pace of foreclosures to slow notably, which means that fewer households will have to double-up.
Looking ahead to 2013 and beyond, we use forecasts from the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. They present two possible trajectories for household growth: 1) an average of 1.48 million annually through 2020 assuming net immigration returns to the 2000-05 pace and headship rates at 2008 levels; and 2) an average of 1.25 million annually through 2020 assuming the same 2008 headship rates but slower immigration. We believe the latter is more likely and use this as our baseline forecast (Figure 9).
Renters will take market share
Although we expect household formation to start to improve in 2013, the homeownership rate should still fall further, suggesting that most of the gain in households will be due to an increase in renters. This is because there is still a considerable number of homeowners with mortgages in some stage of delinquency that are likely to end in foreclosure. Based on data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, there are about 5.5 mn seriously delinquent mortgages currently outstanding.
A recent paper by economists at the NY Federal Reserve (Haughwout, Andrew, Richard Peach, Joseph Tracy. “The Homeownership Gap”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Volume 16, Number 5, May 2010) attempts to quantify the effective lower bound for the homeownership rate. They make the assumption that underwater borrowers (negative equity), who currently account for about a quarter of mortgage holders, will transition to renters over time. Subtracting these underwater borrowers yields an “effective homeownership rate” of 61.6% (Figure 10). This would be a record low in the data which goes back to 1965. We do not expect such a precipitous drop because not all underwater homeowners will become renters. Indeed, a recent study by Trulia.com and RealtyTrac found that 59% of respondents would not go into foreclosure simply because of negative equity. We believe it is more likely that the homeownership rate will bottom at 65%, returning to mid-1990s levels.
It is plainly obvious why the demand-side is so often ignored in polite conversation: it is the consumer-driven aspect of the house price variable, over which neither the Fed, nor the Treasury, nor the FHA has any authority, and which is a function purely of expectations of the future. Alas, those right now are lously and getting worse. We expect that Demand-side housing economics will take on progressively more importance in the future, as it becomes obvious that no amount of Supply-side tinkering will prevent another 20% drop in prices.
And speaking of Supply, this is also a critical factor, if much more prevalent in the daily media. Alas, that in itself does not make the problem any easier to resolve.
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